The spiral vs. the cycle (6/29/2021)

 I recently had an encounter with one of my neighbors.  This gentleman is a fanatic conservative, and whenever you have a friendly talk with him he will find a way of steering the conversation into politics in one way or another.  He knows that I am a fervent liberal, and that makes me one of his favorite targets.  Surprisingly, we still get along, and at times I like needling him.  We even used to be drinking buddies; although, my wife and I have been avoiding this couple in the past few years exactly for the reason detailed above, actually ever since the election of tRump.

During our recent encounter, my friend tried to convince me that whatever we are currently experiencing in our climate is cyclical.  He was obviously not referring to what they are experiencing in the northwest.  I have a feeling if I let him loose there and he would tell that to folks over there, he might get beaten up.  No, my friend (who shall remain nameless) was telling me that when he moved into our neck-of-the-woods years ago, springs were cold and unpredictable and then all the sudden they turned warm and predictable.  Now according to him, the weather again turned cold and unpredictable in spring these past two years; and his conclusion to me was: “see, it is cyclical.”    

I can be somewhat quick witted at times, but this time he caught me off guard.  I kinda smiled and tried to walk on.  My friend reminded me that we used to do a lot of debating and drinking together and that we desperately needed to repeat this.  I just shouted at him from a distance to have our brides make the arrangements.  

A little further during my walk, I all the sudden figured out what my answer should have been to this old friend about the cyclicality of the weather.  Yes, I could have told him that climate and weather are two completely different things.  Weather is what we are currently experiencing (yesterday and maybe tomorrow).  Climate is defined as the long-term average weather.  So yes, the weather is cyclical, just as every day is cyclical, it gets light every morning and dark every evening.  

However, in my eyes if there is a cyclical pattern in our climate it is a spiral and the climate is spiraling out of control.  Spirals go round and round as well, they can get tighter or wider.  Spirals get back to a similar pattern as well, but usually more exaggerated.  That is what we are seeing thanks to global warming or climate change.  I am sure that the Pacific Northwest has had heat waves before.  But never like this.  

I really think that this should have been my answer to my friend.  Honestly, he is one of the most intelligent persons I know (and that for a Republican) and I bet he would understand the spiral.  Although I think an interesting discussion would have followed.  Yes, the same conditions will repeat maybe for shorter periods, or more exaggerated, but they will eventually spiral out of control.  An interesting, but disturbing concept to consider.  But one thing is certain, climate change is real and we are stuck in a spiral.

I chose this picture today as a representation of the ultimate spiral.  Hurricanes are expected to increase in numbers and intensity with global warming.