The AMOC is going amok (8/10/2021)

This week we learn that global warming may have some real strange bedfellows. Ice age anyone? Unbelievable, now I have to concede to some of the conservative pundits who were telling us that the climate is all cyclical, and we were due for an ice age and not for warming out of control. Where did I or all these doomsday prognosticators go wrong? Here I wrote a whole post on how things were not cyclical, but we were trapped in a death spiral. No, now we are learning that the movie “The day after tomorrow” may actually be spot on.

This was a scene from this past winter, but can you just imagine walking in the woods on August 10, in coastal Virginia and experiencing this.  Yes, I have been in a snowstorm in Wyoming on July 3rd, but that was at high elevation.

What changed? Well, it is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that seems to be getting screwed up. Now what the hell is he talking about? The AMOC going amok?

Very simply put the gulf stream is part of AMOC, a circulation of ocean currents that brings warmer waters to the northern hemisphere and the temperate climate to western Europe.  Part of the AMOC is a colder flow back over the ocean floor. Cold water is heavier and where the warm and the cold meet (for instance the Labrador Straights) it provides great fish habitat.

This past week two papers were published, one by a climate scientist (Niklas Boers) and one by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research who both claim that the circulation is weakening, slowing down or may actually stopping. This may actually happen abruptly, or more likely by the end of this century (no one is sure yet). The result should be the end of warm temperate weather in Europe and North America. North America and Europe will likely experience an ice age like in the movie; maybe not overnight but fairly rapidly. In addition, there will be droughts in these areas and in west Africa and because the current actually pulls water away from the east coast of the U.S. there will be extra sea level rise. Exciting isn’t it!

But why is this happening?

Therein lies the 10-million-dollar question isn’t it. The cause is global warming. While that may seem crazy, but all that ice and melting (cold) freshwater runoff (read too much runoff and caused by global warming) from the melting Greenland glaciers that enters the ocean is essentially interrupting, weakening, blocking the AMOC. Somewhat like a feedback loop, it may actually usher in a new ice age. While the other ice ages may have been caused by the earth’s shift on its axis, this may be caused indirectly by humankind.

It would sure be an interesting scenario to think about, I am not sure if scientists really know if this will really happen and if so, how severe it would be. It is just fascinating and scarry at the same time to see and think about what is happening now that we humans are influencing the natural world as opposed of being part of the natural world. There are so many things happening around us presently that never happened before, at least not at such a large scale like the floods, hurricanes and wildfires.